American experts expect that due to African swine fever, tearing apart the pig industry in China, pork prices will rise and are likely to remain high until 2020.

Since the confirmation of the first case in August last year, at least 129 cases of African swine fever have been reported in China. This incurable disease has also spread to other parts of Asia, including Vietnam.

“African swine fever in China could lead to a long period of rising pork prices in the United States,” said Thomas Palmer, an analyst at JP Morgan, in a research note.

In his opinion, there is still no means to restrain the spread of the virus among pigs, and replacing the pig population in China is likely to take “at least 20 months,” which means that “increased demand for pork will continue, at least until 2020. "

The jump in wholesale prices for pork and bacon can affect the profitability of restaurants serving BLT (bacon, salad and tomato sandwiches), bacon cheeseburgers and pork sandwiches.

Now restaurants are closely monitoring pork prices. But some analysts believe that the pig’s stomachs used to make bacon can jump in price by more than 40% with further upside potential until 2020.