Rain has brought some relief to the European Union rapeseed crop this month, but analysts still expect drought this year to be the lowest in more than a decade due to drought.
The Coceral Grain Industry Association has predicted that rapeseed production in the EU will reach 17.9 million tons in 2019, about 2 million tons less than last year.
Other forecasters expect a similar amount of rapeseed in the EU, which will be the lowest since at least 2007.
“Rain is a factor that can slightly increase the rape crop. But this season, rape has suffered so much that it will not matter much for the situation. It looks like the harvest in the EU will be less than 18 million tons, ”said Nathan Cordier, Agritel Consultant.
In France, Coceral expects rapeseed to fall from last year's 4.9 million tons to 4 million tons, and some traders see production falling below 4 million tons.
And in Germany, despite the long-awaited rain, it is also predicted a decline in the rape crop. The Association of German Farmer’s Cooperatives has reduced its previous forecast, in its opinion, the main yield of winter rape on an annualized basis will fall by 17.1% to 3.04 million tons.
In Poland, recent rain has also removed concerns about drought. Wojtek Sabaranski from the Sparks Polska analytical group said that "There is still hope that this year’s crop may be slightly larger than last year’s 2.3 million tons and reach about 2.4 million tons."
